Thursday, October 18, 2012

Should we normalize electricity data by HDD in a not electrical heating systems?


I have been analyzing energy consumption for more than 40 sites for the last 6 months and now it is the time to calculate the energy savings from the previous electrical saving projects that we had in the last couple of years. But wait, how do I compare the electricity consumption for these different years? Should I normalize it by Heating Degree Days (HDD) because we had different temperature patterns each year? Or it doesn't matter because our heating systems run by Natural Gas! But wait, the more heating needed, the more and harder electrical systems such as fans and pumps would work.

These were some of my thoughts when I wanted to start my analysis. Regardless of if you asked these question from yourself, or you never thought about this, you should pay attention to some points:

1- Your electricity bill is not only based on your fans and pumps'electrical consumption. You have a lot of electrical systems that are consuming the same amount of energy throughout the whole year, such as lighting systems, or electrical stoves, or vacuum cleaners...

2- Even if some of your electrical systems are affected by the temperature profile, they might not follow the linear correlation. Here is a simple test you can run to figure this out by yourself:

Collect your electrical bill data for each month and look up the HDD number for each of those months. You can easily find HDD data for your area by searching in internet. Sort you HDD from smallest to biggest. Then graph your data to find the linear equation, and R squared value:




Now if you do the same process with Natural Gas data you see a totally different result:
This graph clearly shows that despite electricity consumption, NG consumption has a very good correlation (R squared = 0.9691) with HDD. 


3- Now if you are really insisting that electricity consumption of your electrical systems such as fans and pumps are correlated to HDD, you should try to find an approximate electricity consumption of the systems that are not dependent (like lighting, electrical stove  carpentry machines, vacuum cleaner etc.) and take them out of your electricity consumption data and then try to graph it by HDD. if you see R Squared value higher than 0.8, then I would say you can go ahead and normalize your data by HDD. If not, just forget about normalizing by HDD, it just doesn't have that simple linear correlation.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Life-changing realization

SO couple of days ago, a friend posted this on his timeline:

20 life-changing realizations from the world’s youngest VC

it was such an interesting article, which obviously not all parts of it made sense, but these two opening statements really got my attention:


  • A year ago I was 40lbs heavier and I couldn’t run for more than 10 minutes. Today, I’ve dropped the 40lbs (thanks to Tim Ferriss’ slow carb diet) and I’m now training for my first triathlon (never thought that would happen!).
  • A year ago I sat my dorm room and dreamt about being in the “real world” of Silicon Valley. Today, I’m an associate at Alsop Louie Partners, a San Francisco-based high-tech venture capital firm.
  • ( Read more at http://venturebeat.com/2012/08/14/life-changing-realizations-youngest-vc/#Vf445hOk1EkpfrPY.99 ) 

    I really want to give a try this time and see how it goes..... Maybe I start with video blogging rather than writing, cause I am not a good writer, but I talk a looot!


    Give it a try and see how you feel after reading this article.

    Monday, March 5, 2012

    Rebound effect - Do we appreciate more efficiency in different services?

    rebound effect is increased level of energy services (and energy consumed) in response to efficiency gains
    (e.g. buy a Prius, drive more km’s). Based on this study, the rebound effect makes up to 30% more consumption in different services. It seems that the appreciation of better efficiency in social behaviour in direct with these services is ignored. Maybe it is time to think twice about it?

    Useful energy!

    So apparently only about 37% of the whole energy consumption is useful, and the rest is lost! This is not considering if that 37% portion is actually useful or it could be more efficient.

    Thursday, October 13, 2011

    Some economic terms

    Excludability

     Ecludability and non-exculdability:
    In economics, a good or service is said to be excludable when it is possible to prevent people who have not paid for it from having access to it, and non-excludable when it is not possible to do so.



    Rivalry


    In economics, rivalry is a characteristic of a good. A good can be placed along a continuum ranging from rivalrous (rival) to non-rival. The same characteristic is sometimes referred to assubtractable or non-subtractable . A rival (subtractable) good is a good whose consumption by one consumer prevents simultaneous consumption by other consumers. Put differently, a good is considered non-rival (non-subtractable) if, for any level of production, the cost of providing it to a marginal (additional) individual is zero


    Externality


    Externality: 
    In economics, an externality (or transaction spillover) is a cost or benefit, not transmitted through prices, incurred by a party who did not agree to the action causing the cost or benefit. A benefit in this case is called a positive externality or external benefit, while a cost is called a negative externality or external cost.




    source: wikipedia

    Thursday, September 22, 2011

    Aquaculture - Pros and Cons

    1-Introduction:
    The Japanese Resource Council, Science and Technology Agency as under
    have defined aquaculture [1]:
    “Aquaculture is an industrial process of raising aquatic organisms up to final
    commercial production within properly partitioned aquatic areas, controlling the
    environmental factors and administering the life history of the organism positively
    and it has to be considered as an independent industry from the fisheries
    hitherto.”
    The global production of food fish from aquaculture, including reached 52.5
    million tones in 2008 that covers about 45.7 of world’s fish production in 2008.
    China is known as the world’s largest aquaculture [1].
    There are five main ways in which fish can be farmed:
    1. Cages which are categorized as fixed, floating, submersible, and submerged.
    2. Closed water systems.
    3. Pond (usually counted for less than one hectare).
    4. Raceways.
    5. Inland aquaculture farms.

    2-Pros and Cons of Aquaculture
    The pros for aquaculture could be described as:
    - Creation of thousands of jobs and millions of dollars in income [2].
    - Provide substantial socio-economic contribution to many coastal and
    rural communities where aquaculture takes place [2].
    - Supplies almost half of global demand for fish and seafood [2,3].
    - Supplies a fresh, reliable, year-round source of protein [2].
    - Reduces fishing pressure on certain species, thus helping the life cycle
    of wild lives [3].
    On the other hand, the cons could be summarized as:
    - Nutrition Enrichment: including nutrient and organic matter
    (eutrophication, sedimentation and effects on the food web) [2,4].
    - Chemical pollution: including pesticides, drugs and antifoulants (There is
    relatively less health issue knowledge such as ecological effects of
    chemotherapeutics on non-target species. Also accumulation of
    antibiotics in sediments may interfere with bacterial communities and
    affect mineralization of organic wastes [5]. The evolution of drug resistant
    strains of pathogenic bacteria is perhaps the most important implication
    of antibiotic use in aquaculture. Resistance to antibiotics is present in
    bacterial populations naturally [6,7,8]).
    - Interactions between farmed and wild species; including disease
    transfer and genetic & ecological effects (Farmed fish could escape and
    establish in the wild, thus harming wild stocks by competing for habitat
    and food or by producing an unnatural hybrid species. Additionally the
    other species that rely on those farmed fish get attracted to the farm and
    get trapped on the barriers that farmers use for separation) [2].
    However, since different type of aquaculture has different impacts on
    environment, we can take a closer look at their impacts separately. Based on
    World Wild Life (WWL) report that has partnered with Food and Agriculture
    Organization (FAO) in 1999, we can categorize the aquaculture to the groups
    below [9].
    - Shrimp:
    - Approximately 5 million metric tons of shrimp produced annually.
    - Most shrimp production is in China, followed by Thailand, Indonesia,
    India, Vietnam, Brazil, Ecuador and Bangladesh.
    - The major import of shrimp is to the United States, European Union and
    Japan.
    The key environmental and social issues related to shrimp aquaculture are:
    - Farm design: Ecologically sensitive habitat.
    - Water use/pollution: Salinization happens during aquaculture of shrimp
    that can get into the groundwater. Also organic waste, harsh chemicals
    and antibiotics used from shrimp farms are water pollutants.
    - Feed management: Wild stocks of fish can be depleted for use in
    formulated feeds for shrimp production
    - Broodstock: There are biodiversity issues related to the collection of wild
    brood and seed
    - Pathogens: Pathogens can result into major shrimp disease outbreaks
    and consequently significant economic losses in producing countries
    - Socioeconomic issues: Jobs are really sensitive to the outbreaks and
    fewer wild caught shrimp to harvest
    - Salmon:
    - One of the most popular fish species in the United States, Europe and
    Japan.
    - Approximately 60 percent (1.26 million metric tons) of the world's salmon
    comes from fish farms.
    - Norway and Chile are the major producers that supply close to two-thirds
    of the world's farmed salmon due to the geographical conditions. Other
    significant producers are Chilie, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
    - Farmed salmon are most commonly grown in cages or pens in semisheltered
    coastal areas, such as bays or sea lochs.
    The key environmental and social issues related to salmon aquaculture
    are:
    - Benthic impacts: Chemicals and excess nutrients from food and feces
    associated with salmon farms can disturb the flora and fauna on the ocean
    bottom (benthos)
    - Chemical inputs: Excessive use of antibiotics, anti foulants, and
    pesticides has been used that can cause many consequences for marine
    organisms and human health.
    - Disease/parasites: Sensitivity to the viruses and parasites transferred
    between farmed and wild fish and among farms.
    - Escapes: Escaped farmed salmon can compete with wild fish and
    interbreed with local wild stocks of the same population, altering the
    overall pool of genetic diversity.
    - Feed: In order to supply the fishmeal and fishoil, farmers are very
    dependent on other wild fish that cause a lot of pressure on fishing
    resources. Fish caught to make fishmeal and oil currently represent onethird
    of the global fish harvest.
    - Nutrient loading and carrying capacity: Excess food and fish cause an
    increase in the levels of nutrients in the water that can result in
    eutrophication.
    - Social issues: Salmon farming produce a large number of jobs.
    Additionally, conflicts can arise among users of the shared coastal
    environment.
    - Biavalve
    - Filter-feeding bivalves (clams, mussels, scallops and oysters) make up
    approximately one-quarter of the world's aquaculture production.
    - China is the major producer with more than 80 percent of the world’s
    farmed bivalve shellfish production. Other important producer countries
    are Japan, the United States, France, Thailand, Spain, New Zealand, and
    Italy.
    - Unlike most finfish and crustaceans, bivalves feed on naturally occurring
    phytoplankton at the base of the food chain that eliminates the need for
    external feed inputs.
    - Also, these shellfish often improve water quality by filtering sediment and
    excess nutrients.
    - Shellfish can create a complex three-dimensional habitat that can be
    beneficial because it often is colonized by vertebrate and invertebrate
    fauna.
    The key environmental and social issues related to bivalve production are:
    - Ecosystem integrity: Habitat interactions and ecological community
    structure modifications
    Genetics: Escaping and inbreeding can cause the gene transfer to wild
    populations
    - Disease: Pathogens are issue and the use of chemicals for preventing
    and controlling diseases will cause pollution.
    - Farm maintenance: Biavalve farms need more management regarding to
    disposal of debris, chemicals, and organic waste; processing of wastes;
    treatment of effluent; and maintenance of equipment.
    - Tilapia:
    - Approximately 2.3 million metric tons of tilapia is produced annually which
    73 percent of it is farmed.
    - Most of the tilapia is produced in China, followed by Egypt, Indonesia,
    Thailand and the Philippines.
    - Most tilapia is imported to the United States, the European Union and
    Japan.
    The main impacts related to tilapia aquaculture are:
    - Compromise of ecological integrity of aquaculture facilities:
    Overstocking, stress and other factors can make farmed tilapia
    susceptible to viruses and diseases.
    - Pollution from inputs used at aquaculture facilities: Feed and fertilizer
    used in excess at tilapia aquaculture facilities can pollute the water mostly
    by eutrophication.
    - Invasive species: Nonnative tilapia that escape can compete with native
    fish species and change the genetic makeup and diversity of species.
    - Socioeconomic impacts: Aquaculture can conflict with other uses of an
    area or resource, such as the use of water bodies for recreation and
    reliance on landscapes for scenic vistas.
    - Pangasius
    - The farming of pangasius - mainly tra (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus)
    and basa (Pangasius bocourti) - is one of the fastest growing types of
    aquaculture in the world.
    - Vietnam produces 90 percent of Pangasius farming
    - European Union countries are the major export market, with a share of 35
    percent.
    The main impacts related to pangasius aquaculture are:
    - Legal: Farms are sometimes constructed and/or operated outside the
    legal framework for addressing environmental, social and food safety
    issues of relevance to the area where the farming occurs
    - Land use and water use: other sensitive habitat that shares the water
    can be destroyed.
    - Water pollution and waste management: Excess waste can pollute the
    water and negatively affect plant and animal habitat
    - Genetics and biodiversity: escaping from aquaculture will cause
    competing with wild fish and affecting ecosystems, especially in areas
    where pangasius is not yet established
    - Feed management: Use of fishmeal, fish oil and trash-fish as pangasius
    feed is resulting in depletion of food sources that other fish rely on.
    - Health management, veterinary medicines and chemicals: Pangasius
    farms may cause in health problem on other species. Also, the
    inappropriate use of veterinary medicines and chemicals can have
    unintended consequences on the environment and human health, such
    as antibiotic resistance and unsafe products.
    - Abalone
    - Abalone is a type of mollusc.
    - Abalone farming is supplying about 70 percent of global use.
    - China produces more than 80 percent of Abalone need which most of it is
    consumed domestically. The other producers areSouth Korea, South
    Africa, Taiwan, Australia, Chile and the United States.
    Main impacts of abalone aquaculture on environment are:
    - Farm siting/infrastructure: Aesthetics, noise, odor and dust; habitat
    destruction and rehabilitation.
    - Energy use: Excess electricity used of large-scale farms has become a
    big concern.
    - Feed inputs: Unsustainable wild seaweed harvest; fishmeal and fish oil
    content in manufactured feed.
    - Biosecurity: Transfer of diseases to and from the wild, within the wild and
    within aquaculture systems; pathogen amplification.
    - Ecosystem effects: Benthic impacts, such as sedimentation and erosion;
    eutrophication; habitat destruction; and wildlife interactions
    - Waste management: Effluents such as nutrients, sediment and
    chemicals, biological waste, and solid wastes
    - Fresh water trout:
    - Most freshwater-farmed trout is rainbow trout.
    - The main rainbow trout producing countries are Iran, France, Italy,
    Denmark, the United States and Spain. These same countries are where
    most trout is consumed.
    - Different systems can be used in farming of this type such as cages in
    lakes, flow-through systems, ponds, and recalculating systems.
    Main impacts of trout aquaculture on environment are:
    - Water use: The excess amount of water is needed to be used wich will
    affect water resource.
    - Escapees: Trout that escape from farms can compete with wild fish for
    habitat and breeding grounds.
    - Discharges: Waste produced in farming can pollute the water.
    - Fish health/welfare and disease transfer: If not managed well, trout
    production can expose fish to stress and diseases that can impact both
    farmed and wild stocks.
    - Feed ingredients: The feed used in trout production includes a high level
    of wild caught fish, some from fisheries that are not environmentally
    sustainable.
    - Energy efficiency and carbon footprint: The energy consumption is
    large in the farms and consequently will cause in high carbon.
    - Predator control: Birds and other predators can consume considerable
    volumes of fish from the farms and cause serious economic losses to the
    producers.
    - Seriola and cobia
    - Cobia and Seriola are also known as amberjack, yellowtail kampachi,
    hamachi and hiramasa.
    - Japan and Australia are the major producer of Seriola.
    - Seriola and cobia are usually produced in cages – some close to land and
    some in the open ocean.
    3-Regulation
    It seems that aquaculture should be governed at in the international level. It has
    been proven that environmental impact studies and life cycle assessments
    which were done only nationally have failed at in the international levels. One
    national jurisdiction might have regulation that would follow the environmental
    limit lines for that nation, but due to the fact that the sources for fishing are in
    common use (except for the species that are in local rivers and lakes which still
    would affect the life cycle of related waters) and also due to the fact that the
    import and export of fish and seafood happens globally (which may result in
    spreading a disease or other health issues globally), it should be a minimum
    international guideline that develops sustainable practices.
    The need of international regulation resulted in partnering of WWF partnered with
    FAO, the World Bank and the Network of Aquaculture Centers of Asia Pacific to
    create the Shrimp Aquaculture and the Environment Consortium In 1999. The
    United Nations Environmental Program has since joined the as well. In 2006,
    after the completion of more than 140 meetings with more than 8,000 people and
    the publication of 40 case studies by 120 researchers, the FAO’s Committee on
    Fisheries adopted the consortium’s International Principles for Responsible
    Shrimp Farming. WWF held eight roundtables known as Aquaculture Dialogues
    with participation of more than 2000 people -- farmers, conservationists,
    academics, government officials and others that started in 2004. As the result of
    these discussions, standards for minimizing the major negative environmental
    and social impacts for tilapia, abalone, clams, mussels, scallops, oysters and
    Pangasius were established. These efforts are still continuing and it is expected
    that in 2011 the standards for freshwater trout, salmon, shrimp, Seriola and cobia
    be finalized [9].


    References:
    [1] FAO official website
    (http://www.fao.org/docrep/field/003/AC169E/AC169E00.htm#ch1.)
    [2] www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
    [3] http://www.aquaculturepro.com/
    [4] B.T. Hargrave, Marine Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans
    Canada Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia
    [5] Stewart, J.E. 1994. Aquaculture in Atlantic Canada and the research
    requirements related to environmental interactions with finfish culture, p. 1-18.
    In A. Ervik, P. Kupka Hansen and V. Wennevik [eds.]. Proceedings of the
    Canada- Norway Workshop on Environmental Impacts of Aquaculture. Fisken
    Havet 13.
    [6] McPhearson, R M., A. DePaola, S.R. Zwyno, M.L. Motes and A.M. Guarino.
    1991. Antibiotic resistance in Gram-negative bacteria from cultured catfish and
    aquaculture ponds. Aquaculture 99: 203-211.
    [7] Johnson, R. and J. Adams. 1992. The ecology and evolution of tetracycline
    resistance. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 7: 295-299.
    [8] Spanggaard, B., F.G.L. Jorgensen and H.H. Huss. 1993. Antibiotic
    resistance in bacteria isolated from three freshwater farms and an unpolluted
    stream in Denmark. Aquaculture 115: 195-207.
    [9] WWL official website (
    http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/globalmarkets/aquaculture/aquaculturedialog
    ues.html)

    Monday, July 18, 2011

    What is trade in allowance ?

    trade-in allowance is the amount of money taken off the sale price in exchange for the item being traded in by the customer. It is most commonly seen in the automotive industry when a person trades in their old car to the dealer. The term "trade-in allowance" is used because it is different than the actual value of the item. For example, the new car has a retail price of $20,000, but the dealer would be willing to discount the vehicle and sell it for $19,000 cash. The old car has a wholesale value to the dealer of $8,000; but the dealer would offer a trade-in allowance of $9,000 off the full retail price of the new car. The difference between full retail and the trade-in allowance ($11,000) is the same as the difference between what the dealer is willing to take for the new car and what he is willing to pay for the trade-in (19 - 8 = 11).

    Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_Trade-in-allowance#ixzz1SVBBUoAn